Demand Planner (JHB North) at Aspen Pharma Group

OBJECTIVE OF ROLE 

• This role is responsible for developing a 24-month rolling demand plan through comprehensive demand analytics and close collaboration with Commercial and Supply Chain stakeholders. The resulting plan provides a forward-looking view of business performance and enables effective supply alignment to support revenue and profit generation. The primary objective is to support commercial growth by identifying risks and opportunities within the business unit through a robust demand planning process. Key responsibilities also include maintaining statistical forecasts for the relevant divisions and driving continuous improvements in forecast accuracy in partnership with key stakeholders. Additionally, the role ensures appropriate stock availability and optimal inventory levels for the assigned portfolio, while also supporting reporting and preparation activities for governance meetings.

KEY RESPONSIBILITIES

• Responsible for creating 24 months rolling demand plan for the respective business unit to provide the business with a forward outlook on revenue/profit trajectory as well as ensuring supply plans generation to service the demand plan.  

Demand Plan Generation & Maintenance

• Develop the 24 months rolling plan through analytical forecasting, collaboration with business unit heads, brand managers, and sales, generate and maintain a 24-month rolling forecast.
• Develop a clear set of assumptions that underpins the forward demand plan. Keep and track the assumptions in planning log to drive the forward development of the demand plan. 
• Prepare and generate Forecasts to determine and provide latest opportunity and risks within the demand plan. Provide evidence and scenarios to support decisions and actions. 
• Adopt or enhance latest demand templates including understanding of impact on financials to support demand plan discussions. 
• Coordinate forecast meetings with Sales & Marketing to highlight risks/opportunities from forecast preparation and update the latest Commercial assumptions, action plans to derive an agreed accurate demand plan with the Sales & Marketing team. 
• Collaborate with sales and marketing to coordinate portfolio optimisation using the segmentation model to remove unproductive products. Account for the removals in the demand plan by working with supply team to establish the write off costs and run down plans. 
• Maintain the demand planning systems (SAP, Maestro) to reflect latest forecast, including the unconstrained plan, committed plan and consensus plan.
• Understand and support with building of new product launch assumptions and ensure demand plan is maintained accordingly.
• Ensure correct demand plan is lined up correctly to the various supply points. Especially those involving phase in phase out activities.
• Responsible for preparation and execution of demand review for the relevant division and support Demand planning manager with aggregation into total business view. Drive process improvement on the demand planning methodology and demand review process. 
• Highlight and articulate key changes to the demand plan and its impact on supply and inventory levels to the Commercial and Supply chain team through the demand reviews processes. 

Forecasting

• Determine and implement the best fit forecasting methodology that is relevant for the sales behaviour for the business unit.
• Maintain forecasting model on planning system and parameters on SAP to ensure accurate forecast input and output.
• Establish the baseline demand for each brand with the correct SKU mix based on historical sales history. 
• Adopt and Maintain Statistical forecasting
• Understand key parameters for utilizing statistical forecast and its cause and effect.
• Analyse historical demand and remove anomalies (including outliers) from the norm using historical information on monthly basis
• Review resulting statistical forecast and its accuracy on the monthly basis
• Apply error analysis techniques to improve forecasting, update best fit statistical model to generate accurate base forecast
• Execute statistical modelling through the planning system.
• Summarize/aggregate the forecast and compare that with current demand plan.
• Create consensus forecast for events deviating from the baseline.
• Determine the forecast variations from baseline with relevant market intelligence information discussed with the Marketing team including updates on pricing, promotion, market penetration activities.
• Prepare relevant forecast and performance data as well as research materials to drive discussions on forward forecast adjustments from the baseline
• Create building blocks, events calendar for demand and provide insights to past promotional activities through analytics and share recommendations on forecast adjustments or promotion adjustments
• Coordinate cross-functional research activities with Sales and Marketing to reconcile significant variances and refine forecast model to reflect latest sales and assumptions

Forecasting Performance Tracking

Monitor forecast trends & errors. Analyse forecast accuracy and bias performance

• through tracking sales actual and unpacking market insights and various demand drivers
• Present the forecast accuracy at the Forecast review meeting, agreed on root cause and corrective actions. 
• Monitoring actual sales to drive continuous improvements in consensus forecasting with marketing and sales

Budget and Financial forecasting process (Budget, FC1, FC2)

• Generate and approve a budget demand plan with Marketing and Finance.
• Attendance of Quarterly Financial Forecasting process with Brand and Finance
• Determine key changes, process violations to frozen period/lead time as well as highlight key differences in SKU mix, sales phasing and assumptions from current plan vs Budget plans. 
• Agree with Marketing and Finance on the unconstrained plan and plan for financial commitments. 
• Load the agreed plan accurately into planning system to translate into supply requirements for the various supply points. 
• Engage supply team on constraints and recovery timing. Keep record tracking and amend system forecast and item master parameters to effect the constraining of the plan
• Engage with Finance to agree allocation of available stock based on constraints and business unit prioritization, as well as final codes to be used.

Order Management, Supply Planning & Inventory Management for third parties (Portfolio Specific) and Governance Meetings

• Understand and track supply constraints and communicate effectively on risks to the demand plan to the Marketing and Sales team. Short term risks on weekly basis and longer term constraints updated on monthly basis.
• Track stock supply point delivery vs actual, conduct required follow up to ensure revenue generation.
• Drive stock supply with suppliers to ensure maximum revenue generation. 
• Attend relevant sales and operations execution meetings with suppliers and bring forward concerns regarding supply as well as latest short term changes in sales plan. Provide front end feedback to the supply sites on latest demand movements, coordinate discussions on the opportunities and risks regarding demand and supply.
• Assess stock prioritization, pull forward and deferral request based on sales performance and latest agreed demand plan.
• Ensure stock holding conforms with inventory policy and investigate deviations for corrective actions. Alternatively propose changes in safety stock holding and provide scenarios for decision making on proposed stock holding. 
• Identify and review items with excess inventory and propose action plan with Sales and Marketing team to reduce write off risks.
• Manage short dated stock and drive demand shaping with Marketing considering forward demand and supply risks as well as regulatory implication.
• Minimise write off costs on slow moving stock or idle stock by proposing change in stock policy or demand shaping actions to reduce write off.
• Monitor stock shelf life and manage stock protection for the relevant portfolio. 
• Deep dive into excess and shortfall stock as well as key drivers to ensure the correct inventory levels going forward.
• Explore alternative supply options in the case of short fall, including section 21 and 36 products or strategize with RA partners. 
• Liaise with 3rd parties QA on post importation testing (where applicable) and ensure timeously release vs set target days.
• Process purchase orders and obtain approvals. Ensure order book is managed effectively and up to date. 
• Update Purchase orders and generate ASN numbers. (where applicable)
• Provide input to supply points in developing inventory strategies on existing, new and phased-out products. Manage the discontinuation of products with sales, marketing, VC as well as suppliers. 
• Take part in month end stand-by to ensure service deliveries during weekends or holidays, support with PO creation, stock follow up and escalation where required. (rotational basis)
• Ensure demand signals are translated to supply requirements and shared on time per agreed 3rd party timelines. 
• Input into Supply review on elevations and escalations as well as information supporting required decision making. 
• Prepare and present for 3rd party governance reviews as per business requirement. 
• Set up, maintain and track 3rd party KPI and governance parameters. 

Other Planning Activities for third parties (Portfolio Specific)

• Manage the process for suspended and discontinued items through engagement with Marketing and Item Master Coordinator. Drive use of SKU segmentation in day to day planning activities.
• Enter and modify data and ensure the correctness of product hierarchy and master data
• Manage product phase in and phase out for projects with changing packaging, regulatory variations, site change etc.
• Manage new product launches and ensuring OTIF delivery.
• Ensure Aspen item master is updated in line with Supplier Product Information List (where applicable)

Continuous Improvements

• Conduct ad hoc analytics required improve forecast accuracy performance
• Support demand planning lead with defining new process, building templates and system streamlining in order to adopt new systems and implement latest business requirement on integrated business planning
• Support Planning Leads with Onboarding of new planners with training templates and SOPs
• Supporting planning related projects, system upgrade/transitions.
• Support implementation of new Integrated Planning system (Kinaxis) and Power BI Dashboards
• Support IT to resolve any system integration and data interface issues that may impact planning activities

Requirements
EDUCATIONAL REQUIREMENTS

• Relevant University qualification in Supply Chain Management, Logistics or Engineering 
• 5+ years of experience in Demand Planning including replenishment forecasting
• Previous exposure on working with statistical forecast is a plus
• Exposure to supply chain and S&OP is a must Previous experience in data science is a plus
• CPF or CPIM an advantage
• Experience in the FMCG/Pharmaceutical industries is essential
• Good working knowledge with ERP systems (SAP) and forecasting Tools

KNOWLEDGE & EXPERIENCE REQUIREMENTS

• A solid understanding of S&OP, demand, and supply planning
• Deep working knowledge of ERP systems
• Deep technical knowledge of demand planning & planning systems
• Basic knowledge on statistical forecast
• Vast experience on demand management

SOFT SKILLS REQUIREMENTS

• Strong planning, organizing, and coordination capabilities
• Highly numerate with excellent analytical and logical reasoning skills
• Results-driven with strong problem-solving and decision-making abilities
• Commercial and strategic awareness, with the ability to think both tactically and long-term
• Self-directed and proactive, with strong execution skills
• Effective influencing and stakeholder management skills
• Excellent interpersonal and communication skills (both written and verbal), with the ability to articulate risks and their broader business impact
• High attention to detail and commitment to accuracy
• Ability to apply demand planning principles within current systems and identify opportunities for enhancement
• Skilled in operationalizing and embedding planning best practices into day-to-day processes
• Experience in coaching and knowledge transfer to develop future talent
• Project management skills (preferred)
• Experience or familiarity with data science and analytics tools (a plus)
• Innovative mindset, especially around strategic supply chain initiatives