Demand Planner at Pernod Ricard

Demand Forecasting

Demand Plan Generation & Maintenance, Forecasting:

• Collaboration with growth revenue, consumer insights, brand/marketing, and sales to generate and maintain a 24-month rolling forecast with latest assumptions.
• Drive accurate forecast in statistical and consensus forecasting covering both baseline and events planning
• Maintain demand planning systems to reflect latest forecast.
• Create statistical forecasts
• Analyse historical demand and remove anomalies (including outliers) from the norm using historical information
• Execute statistical modelling
• Review resulting statistical forecast model
• Apply error analysis techniques to improve forecasting, update best fit statistical model to generate accurate base forecast
• Develop demand forecasts (operational forecasts) at multiple levels of aggregation for multiple time horizons as part of a demand planning function – i.e. clear phasing of demand plan by SKU
• Coordinate cross-functional research activities to reconcile significant variances and refine the forecast model to reflect updated sales and marketing assumptions – these are meetings held outside of the S&OP meetings

Create consensus forecast:

• Achieve consensus for operational demand forecast by leading monthly forecast meeting with sales, marketing & finance
• Build into the monthly forecast any relevant market intelligence information discussed at the marketing updates on pricing, promotion, market penetration.
• Prepare relevant forecast and performance data as well as research materials to drive discussions on forward forecast adjustments, on both base and events, with assistance from Growth Revenue and Consumer Insights teams.
• Provide insights to past promotional activities through analytics and share recommendations on forecast adjustments or promotion adjustments
• Coordinate cross-functional research activities to reconcile significant variances and refine forecast model to reflect latest sales and assumptions.
• Ensure monthly S&OP calendar demand planning related deadlines are strictly adhered to.
• Include direct drop customer forecasting and management.

Systems:

• Refine systems and methods to continually improve forecasts so that the company can better anticipate customer needs.
• Implementation and utilization of demand management software (Anaplan DP) that is used to house the critical information, and is integrated with the ERP system as well as the Sales & Operations Planning platform
• Enter and modify data and ensure the correctness of product hierarchy and master data
• Supporting planning related projects, system upgrade/transitions
• Support IT to resolve any system integration and data interface issues that may impact planning activities

Budget and Financial forecasting process

• Generate and approve a demand plan with a view of net sales impact on the business by collaborating with Finance and the V2V (Volume to Value) model
• Attendance of Quarterly/Monthly Financial meetings related to Brand marketing/Commercial teams that could impact sales forecasting
• Product allocations – Incorporate stock constraints and supplier allocations awarded into demand planning processes, and assist commercial to better prioritise limited stock to maximise net sales and manage customer demand
• Bi-annual review of allocation items demand with commercial and supply chain teams. Monthly allocations sales tracking to highlight monthly and annual risks to commercial

SFG (Simplify for Growth) and SSOS (Slow Selling & Obsolete Stock) collaborative management

• Work closely with Supply Planner , Anaplan DP tools and finance, to provide a qualitative and quantitative list of products to be delisted (80/20 principle) to ensure streamlining of the business portfolio
• Work closely with Supply Planner, marketing and sales teams to provide action plans to deplete slow moving stock

Forecasting Performance Tracking

• Monitor and report forecast trends & errors. Analyse forecast accuracy and bias performance through tracking actual sales (weekly/daily/monthly) and unpacking market insights and various demand drivers
• Present the forecast accuracy at the Demand Review meeting, agree on root cause analysis and corrective actions
• New Product Introduction – close tracking and reporting on performance versus demand plan and demand assumptions
• Monitoring actual sales to drive continuous improvements in consensus forecasting with marketing and sales

JOB REQUIREMENTS:

Minimum Educational Requirements and Work Experience:

• Degree in Supply Chain Management or equivalent
• Experience in liquor or FMCG industry preferred.
• At least 4 years Experience in demand/forecast planning/with forecast tools and ERP systems (eg SAP, JDE).
• Previous exposure on working with statistical forecast is a plus.
• Exposure to S&OP is a must.
• High Skill level - Microsoft Excel and PowerPoint